It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. "They followed through the whole four years. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican.
Fact check: 5 election statistics do not discredit Joe Biden's victory 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. 9. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies.
The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble Seriously. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.".
9 Battleground State Counties That Trump and Biden Need to Win - The Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media.
Bellwether counties: Where in America do voters nail it? Twitter Twitter Lets find a coin, and flip it. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. But it's still indicative of widespread support. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next.
Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. 11. Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. This county voted with the popular vote each time. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating.
An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections - SSRN All Rights Reserved. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. 2023 BBC. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election.
What Can We Learn from Bellwether Counties in Swing States? In their . 03:30. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Read about our approach to external linking. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. Until this year. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. 2016 Election (1135) Nobody forgot about politics.". More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. They simply vote on merit. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. But it's also not unprecedented. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. Free and open-source. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections!
2016 election critical counties: Vigo, Indiana | CNN Politics We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. But that's no longer the case. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. Their hopes are real. Hillary Clinton (578) Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". Until this year. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. It is easy to gloss over this. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. It's the wrong question. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004.
A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. Outstanding. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? University of New Hampshire . But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. What are your thoughts on this article? Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. What results did you discover? (Sorry, not sorry.)
The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance 4. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama.
The Tipping Points of the 2016 Election - The Atlantic 25 battleground counties to watch - POLITICO Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. 2020 Election (1210) 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. Subscribe to breaking updates Watauga has gone for. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections.
Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Will That Last?]. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. Go on, look them up! Really stop reading. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. 8. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. hide caption. First, what are bellwether counties? In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed.
These bellwether counties mirror close NC race for president Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. Trump won the other 18 counties. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. Telegram Telegram How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. Just how big is it? "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections.
Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election - WSJ If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. That's 14 in a row. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction.
From Florida to Texas, the 6 Key Counties That Could Decide the - Vogue While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] Outstanding. Arapahoe County. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county.
Jeff. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. TIP: i.e. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Do you know this baby? Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Trump gave them hope. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. It's happened before.
List of election bellwether counties in the United States Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states.